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http://paul.kedrosky.com/ - Musing about technology, finance, venture capital, & the money culture with Paul Kedrosky

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The Dubai Defense: You’re All Big Boys
As channeled by Saudi billionaire investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, here is the Dubai defense. It amounts to saying “you’re all big boys”, while stomping nastily on investors’ feet. These banks are very mature banks, and they have to differentiate between a corporate loan and a sovereign ...
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Trouble with Charts: Debt/Income and Retail Sales
The following two charts are hugely appealing to my inner contrarian. One “shows” that the U.S. is less reliant on retail sales than commonly supposed; the other “shows” that debt loads of U.S. consumers by income decile isn’t altogether troubling. I like both arguments and find them ...
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San Francisco Condo Price Trends
Via Altos Research , good graph of San Francisco condo price trends:
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Larry Summers at Innovation Economy Conference
Larry Summers at this week’s Aspen Institute Innovation Economy conference:
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Readings: Ocean Liners, U.K. Risk, RIM, and Debt
Ocean liners getting bigger and bigger ( The Economist ) Morgan Stanley Euroletter on U.K. default risk ( Scribd ) After Dubai, Wondering Where the Next Debt Bombs Lurk ( NYT ) Analysts getting squeamish about RIM earning estimates ( Barron’s )
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Tech Adoption, Then and Now
Nice graph from Morgan Stanley showing the pace of technology adoption this time around in the case of wireless ‘net access. Mobile Internet has ramped dauntingly faster than prior technologies, from AOL to Netscape.
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Niall Ferguson vs. Paul Krugman Again
It takes only a couple of paragraphs in his latest bit of opinioneering before historian Niall Ferguson goes after economist Paul Krugman again. He deploys a combination of econo-name-calling (“deficit-loving-economist”) and quotes out of context (a favorite Ferguson gambit is to take an ...
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Norms and the Case for Key Mail
I mentioned this paper in passing earlier, but it really deserves a closer read. The idea? That societal norms cause people to act against their best interests – and disfavor them versus lenders in mortgager/mortgagee relationships – by preventing them from sending in “key mail” when they owe ...
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Financial Filings Are Less Depressing Than They Seem
One of the way that quant sorts and academic researchers mess about with financial filings is by studying the relationship between words found in a financial filing and subsequent performance. While the relationship is loose, at best, it sometimes points to important changes faster than human ...
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Weekend Reading
A few links from my weekly Weekend Reading column: Woman Who Sank Galleon Was Beauty-Queen-Turned-Analyst Insider ( Bloomberg ) Japan's appreciating currency: Time for action ( The Economist ) Dry Lands: Water and irrigation in America ( LRB ) On Wall Street: Apocalypse how? ( FT )  ...
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Readings: Optimism, Dollar, Sexist Trades, Gas, etc.
Why I am an optimist ( Mauldin ) What the iPod tells us about Britain’s economic future ( Telegraph ) The dollar and the budget deficit ( Source ) Organic mechanics in economics ( FT ) Girls can’t trade ( EH ) John Paulson's Future Performance: No Guarantees ( HedgeTracker )  ...
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What is it About Golfers, Spouses, Cars and Clubs?
What is it about golfers, spouses, cars and golf clubs? First we had the Nick Faldo incident back in 1998, and now we apparently have a similar sort of craziness happening with Tiger Woods. Do we need to start licensing golf clubs as deadly weapons? Then again, you don’t see this sort of ...
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Playing “Track Change” at the Wall Street Journal
Via reader John, some interesting “track changes” in items in the WSJ news feed:
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Readings: Dubai, Climate, China Banks, Oil, and America
Dubai Debt Delay Rattles Confidence in Gulf Borrowers ( Bloomberg ) Mystery buyer spends $1.5-million for Russia.com ( TechCrunch ) Why media tell climate story poorly ( TheStar ) Is Global Warming Unstoppable?  ( Utah ) Repairing China’s financial system ( Pettis )  ...
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The World According to Americans
Cute graph of the world according to Americans (via Barry ):
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Readings: Banks, Bling, and Books
Give us fiscal austerity, but not quite yet ( FT ) Banks: The world is weary of the past, but boy, was it exciting! ( Source ) What bling really does to you ( EH ) TLS Books of the Year 2009 ( TLS )
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Black Friday: Boom or Bust?
I'm assuming they're not asking for requests -- because I'd say please bust and go away -- but a good infographic from Mint on this Friday's shopping silliness.
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Tail Risks II: Extreme Events in Society and the Economy
Great new Watson Wyatt report on extreme risks in society and economics:
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Scary Stories: What's Your Favorite Tail Risk?
A new BofA report names various market tail risks -- big scary things that could happen in an outlier scenario -- and then suggests ways of hedging against them. Here is the list, which doesn't feel all that tail-like to me: Inflation/ $100bbl oil Double dip China bubble Protectionism ...
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